"Only 52% of Democrats in a recent poll said they opposed Florida’s Don’t Say Gay law. "
James, despite the reality of there always being absolutely looney results of such polls (such as 5% - 10% of Dems ALWAYS found by polls to support Trump during his so-called presidency), this just feels wrong, and I've been racking my brain as to why.
For one thing, I can find nothing on the methodology of this poll, and just what the frag is Yahoo News/YouGov anyway?!
Then I found this, from Monthly Review:
"Dont Trust Polls on Dont Say Gay
https://mronline.org/2022/04/20/dont-trust-polls-on-dont-say-gay/
It points out 3 major polls, with vastly varying results. None great, but the ABC poll is much more comforting.
The article talks about the sorts of questions asked, and the timing in the context of the evil Florida law.
If this is discussed here, and I've simply missed it, I apologize. But when I saw the statistic, learning more became my highest priority, even before reading the article in the detail I now intend to. The thought of waiting even 5 more minutes was beyond my capabilities. (The reason this may feel unfinished or unproofread.)
Please, let this article be correct...
Thank you, James.
EDIT:
Now I have read more, and am now inclined to believe that NONE of the three polls are accurate.
By no means do I intend to imply that this aspect of the article is all that matters, or even the most important component. But this is perhaps the most easily addressed at this moment.
The article includes:
“Just to be clear: None of the polls actually described the whole bill to their respondents. People in the sample who hadn’t heard of the bill would be aware of only one small part when responding to the question about their support or opposition.”
“Note that ABC News shows 99% of their respondents with an opinion, compared with 75% by the Yahoo/YouGov poll.”
“The Wall Street Journal (4/1/22) seemed to gloat:
“When Americans are presented with the actual language of the new Florida law, it wins support by more than a two-to-one margin.” “
“One of the key differences in the way each pollster measured respondents’ reactions appears to be whether the question specified that sexual orientation or gender identity was to be banned “in grades kindergarten through grade three.” ABC News did not mention the limit and found majority opposition. The other two polls did mention the limit and found net support.”
